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 When liars figure, figures lie!

27.10.20.  The authors of this summation have tiptoed through a minefield choosing descriptors and caveats carefully for example: “Comparing different countries’ fights against COVID-19 is not a straightforward exercise, given differences in demography, geography, health system capability and government strategy.” That’s right! But the headline is misleading: “After Victoria’s long and difficult coronavirus lockdown, it’s now the envy of the world.” That smells like bullshit because it is! Being carefully timed for Dan’s unlocking of the Gulag’s gates is pure coincidence—is it? MM rarely includes links but this one is needed here. Compare Australia’s cases and deaths to other countries.
If the past few months have been like a long-haul flight, Victorians are now standing in the aisles waiting for the cabin door to open, a little groggy and disoriented but relieved.

Source: ABC

After Victoria’s long and difficult coronavirus lockdown, it’s now the envy of the world

They have every right to be. No other place in the world has tamed a second wave this large. Few have even come close.
It’s not a competition
Comparing different countries’ fights against COVID-19 is not a straightforward exercise, given differences in demography, geography, health system capability and government strategy.
Perhaps most importantly, not every country has tried to get down to zero, or near zero, community transmission. This may not have been a realistic goal for countries with less border control than Australia.
Also, as Victorians understand acutely, the virus is unpredictable. Today, as the crisis accelerates in Europe and elsewhere, Victoria’s “zero new cases” are the envy of the world. But there can be no certainty about where things will be in a few months’ time.
All of this is to say that a favourable international comparison should not encourage complacency. But it is nevertheless true that Victoria’s efforts are notable on the world stage. The state’s success has warded off a significant human toll and further economic damage. As a result, Australia has a much better chance of returning to an approximation of “normal life” in the new year.
Victorians should be proud of these efforts, and the starkly different outcomes in countries that were in a similar position should reassure them that the efforts were worthwhile.
Catch up on the main COVID-19 news from October 26 with our coronavirus blog.
Surfing the second wave: Victoria, Singapore, then daylight
On August 5, Victoria’s seven-day average of daily new cases reached 533, the worst numbers seen anywhere in Australia.
Several other countries had similar numbers around that time, including Canada, Japan, Singapore, and most of Europe. They had taken different paths to get there; for Europe, these numbers represented a low ebb, not a peak. But the trajectories after this period diverged even more dramatically.
As the chart below shows, case numbers in several European countries began to accelerate steeply and are now much worse than ever. In contrast, Japan, Denmark, Sweden, Norway, Singapore, and Australia have so far kept case numbers at a moderate level.
But as this next chart shows, there is significant divergence even among these relatively stable countries. Sweden appears on track to replicate the sharp acceleration seen elsewhere in Europe. In Denmark and Japan, case numbers remain at a moderate level but are not trending towards zero. Only Victoria and Singapore, which peaked at around 300, have returned to single digits.
By suppressing their second waves, Victoria and Singapore are well placed to join a small club of countries that have sustained zero or near-zero cases, including New Zealand, Thailand, Vietnam, China, and the rest of Australia. The dividend for these countries has been economic, not just health-related, as the chart below shows.
Victoria’s lockdown has been long and difficult, but it now occupies a rare and envious position. As Victorians await new freedoms on the next step towards COVID-normal, they should feel a sense of accomplishment.
Stephen Duckett is Director of the Health Program and Tom Crowley is an associate at the Grattan Institute. This article originally appeared on The Conversation.

{ 12 comments… add one }
  • GTD 27/10/2020, 5:03 am

    How many so called new cases will be today for Victoria?
    Then comrade Dan will reimpose those draconian lock down laws..

    • Muphin 27/10/2020, 5:46 am

      Great Australia has eliminated the Chines flu from our shores. We are now living in a virus free bubble.
      That means that anyone who wants to come to Australia has to quarantine for 14 days. Who in their right mind would want to have a 14 day holiday penned up like an animal in their hotel room??
      The billion dollar tourism industry is now dead.
      The back packer fruit and vege picker is dead.
      The billion dollar student is dead.

  • luk1955 27/10/2020, 7:40 am

    The only reason dictatordan is unlocking our prison cells is that several groups have challenged the legality of the house arrests and rapings of businesses in the High Court. Hoping to prevent a ruling that could go against the gov’t which could open the door to damage claims if the house arrests were declared illegal. Let’s hope the groups go through with the cases to establish in the future whether such hateful actions can be taken again.
    This is what life will be like under a green economy that is cashless. “Non essential businesses” not allowed. No random traveling allowed. No availability of meats or fish. No overseas travel. No abundant supply of electric power. No sporting events open to the public. No ownership of property. Total green control over your money.

    • BBob 28/10/2020, 7:06 am

      And NO GUNS

  • Honeybadger 27/10/2020, 8:02 am

    Yeah the source is the ABC, the cheer squad for the deranged Dan. What a load of utter BS. Get back to me ABC mob, when you’ve lost your income and actually got skin in the game. Then we’ll talk.
    I live in Victoria and Dan engaged in a scorched earth dictatorship complete with his army of stormtroopers the police, that will ensure the suicide/self harm rate, economic damage, financial ruin of bankruptcies, loss of homes/businesses, divisionof neighbours and so on, will be held up to the world of precisely what not to do. The brains and money will desert Victoria, who would risk starting a business here.

    • Soroako 27/10/2020, 8:40 am

      Spot on Honeybadger.
      Two “woke” mouthpieces from the Grattan Institute and the Conversation manipulating statistics in another attempt to glorify Dengzhou Dan.

      Note the Orwellian last sentence:

      “As Victorians await new freedoms on the next step towards COVID-normal, they should feel a sense of accomplishment.”

      In other words “you were locked up for your own good – and your lemming like acceptance of Big Brother has saved the day “.

      If MotorMouth Morrison had any balls he would insist that for every dollar donated to far left fantasy following think tanks such as the Gratten Institute or “The Conversation” by taxpayer funded organisations e.g. universities and the ABC be matched with a equivalent reduction of taxpayer funded $ grants to said universities and the ABC.

      To be impartial it would also be necessary to treat right wing “think tanks” the same way. If they are worthy then let them raise operating funds direct from supporters not the public purse.

  • Albert 27/10/2020, 9:31 am

    Today we hear songs of praise for Andrews from the MSM song sheet. I fear that the incompetent, communist conman Andrews is going to come out of the mess smelling like roses because he has sold the dumbos in Victoria the Sydney Harbour Bridge with the willing assistance of the MSM. What a travesty will be.

  • Lorraine 27/10/2020, 9:48 am

    I don’t know why Albert is listening to MSM they sing the left song all the time. meanwhile over on Sky you hear the real truth of the 500 suicides, men and women in tears over business’s going to the wall. young children self harming….. Not all care a toss for Daniel Andrews,

  • Walahwalah Bishbin 27/10/2020, 10:11 am

    Psssssst!
    Anyone ever wonder why the term “viral marketing” is not “tortoise marketing”?
    errr, coz it spreads like a tortoise?….
    Yeah naaaaah

  • nev 27/10/2020, 10:59 am

    The Grattan Institute and their ABC the personification of woke but because neither are productive industries they can’t go broke. They can still talk crap though, like…”The state’s success has warded off a significant human toll and further economic damage.”
    No they haven’t they were simply forced to pay in advance, far in excess of cost to other more sensible countries.
    Nor can they ever catch up….Because they can’t resuscitate the dead, 905 unnecessary deaths!

  • JG 27/10/2020, 12:14 pm

    Anyone notice that the states playing hard ball or politics over borders just happen to be Labor states. Wonder how much each way Albo involved?
    Here in Qld the keeping you safe bull is all about smoke and mirrors to hide Labor poor record. It all politics for the Duck and clowns to keep their jobs and bugger the people. Only time we ever see Labor in the regions is election time when suddenly money maybe chuck about.
    Dump the Duck

  • Ozman 27/10/2020, 12:50 pm

    Labor state agendas not withstanding, Morrison is on board with the international agenda to bring the world into what was predicted for for 1984.

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