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 Victoria: ‘modelling’ to take Dan down the dunny!

01.08.19.  This week the Victorian Chief Health Officer Sutton said his “modelling” indicated the wicked rise in COVID-19 cases would trend down. Within 48 hours an Australian all time record was shattered with more than 723 cases. Nevertheless, model they will and this new try by mathematical biologist Deborah Cromer of the University of NSW’s Kirby Institute predicts 1000 new cases per day! Open up the dunny lid for Danger Man Dan!
COVID-19 cases in Victoria are doubling every 16 days and will top 1000 new infections daily by mid-August on the outbreak’s current trajectory, exclusive modelling for The Weekend Australian shows. The numbers have been crunched by mathematical biologist Deborah Cromer of the University of NSW’s Kirby Institute, who warns that the virus is uncontained in Melbourne and spreading at a dangerous rate in Sydney.

Source: Jamie, Walker, News Corp

State’s mounting cases on track to hit 1000 a day if lockdown fails

“I would have to say it is not under control at this point,” Dr Cromer said of the situation in Victoria, where 627 new cases emerged on Friday.
“Having said that, I think it is more under control than it was three weeks ago. But it is not well contained and the numbers are growing, which suggests it is still spreading.
“I don’t think that is indicative of an outbreak that is under control. It is an outbreak that may be manageable, but it is not one that is under control.”
Dr Cromer, who has conducted COVID modelling for NSW Health, said the lockdown in Melbourne had slowed the spread from the alarming point in early July where new case numbers were doubling every five days.
Her calculations show what would have happened had the level-three restrictions not bitten. If unchecked, the transmission rate in Victoria would have hit US-like levels of 5000 new cases a day this weekend and doubled again to 11,544 new cases by next Friday, August 7.
Dr Cromer emphasised this was a worst-case scenario which would have only been realised in the absence of action from heath authorities or individuals to protect themselves. “That would never happen,” she said.
“Once you start to get to ­increased everyday numbers, ­people will naturally change their behaviour. They will interact less, they will take precautions. And the Victorian government was never going to let it progress ­further. They implemented the lockdowns.”
The modelling builds on work she did for this newspaper on July 10, showing how infections were set to increase from 288 new cases a day at that point, then a record.
The trend line averaging out the highs and lows of the daily numbers projects 582 new cases on Sunday, 723 next Friday, 899 on Wednesday, August 12, and 1118 on August 17. Dr Cromer said she was not saying these numbers would be realised as there was no way to know when infections in Victoria would plateau and trend down.
In addition to the 627 new cases recorded on Friday, eight Victorians died overnight, including two men aged in their 50s, taking the state’s death toll to 112. Of the 349 patients in hospital, 37 were in ­intensive care.
“It is clear to all of us that these numbers are far too high,” Premier Daniel Andrews said. NSW posted 21 new cases on Friday, 16 of which were locally acquired, while WA, SA and Queensland each had one additional infection.
Alarmingly, Sydney was where Melbourne had been in June ­before COVID-19 took off, Dr Cromer said.

{ 9 comments… add one }
  • Ozman 01/08/2020, 6:57 am

    US cases are exaggerated with many false positives.

    The CDC has issued instructions that all deaths are to be reported as COVID-19 related if there is a whiff of suspicion that the dead person may have come in contact with an asymptomatic carrier.

    Vicstan Dan is working for the CCP. Reports are that he is intent on borrowing $43.5 billion from China.

    If Comrade Andrews gets his way, it will be back to the Whitlam days, when his government wanted to hock Australia to the Arabs.

    People forget that this is why the Whitlam Government was sent back to the polls and lost. The people rejected him.

    • Lorraine 01/08/2020, 8:37 am

      Not all people forget Ozman, and with the delicious papers just released from 1975 it has reminded many what a crap Government the Whitlam era was. No one should be surprised that corruption is never far away with a Labor Union run Government. We the people are so over the experts and their modelling, They expect us to believe that by 16th August there will 1118…..not 1119 not 1120……that is computer modelling , and the rave is on for the total lock down ,Thus the only people being paid are the public servants Governments and the researchers of crap

      • Bwana Neusi 01/08/2020, 11:53 am

        Rest assured. The infection rate by the “Neusi model” abacus and slide rule calculator will increase exponentially until we exceed 100% of the population.

        At 120% of the population we will start to see a decline to 150% because of new immigration quotas.

  • luk1955 01/08/2020, 7:59 am

    A mathematical biologist. Well shiver me dingers!

    In Florida, an independent news writer questioned the labs involved in the conjob testing and the labs all stated 5-15% positive tests. Yet the Fl Dept of Heath says 95% of all the tests return positive readings. People who lined up for testing, but gave up due to long lines and left without testing received notices they tested positive.
    The head of Fl DOH is a democrap appointee, and the governor of Fla is a republican due for election in November.
    I will let you dear readers make what you may of this.

    I worked in the chemical industry for 35 years and can positively say that the modeling scenarios did NOT work. Just one piece of false data throws an entire model into chaos.

  • Graham Richards 01/08/2020, 8:53 am

    Must be an unemployed climate modeller man working for Dan Dan the COVID man.

  • wal1957 01/08/2020, 10:35 am

    But the ‘modelling’ says this…..

    GIGO…garbage in, garbage out.

    At best, any modelling can be assumed to be an informed ‘guess’.

  • Aktosplatz 01/08/2020, 11:07 am

    As soon as I see the word “Modelling” I tune right out. If there is anything that has been shown to be totally inaccurate in these times it is “Modelling.”

    Modelling has continually failed on weather, climate change, finances, and opinion polls among a whole range of things.

    Modelling is symptomatic of laziness as well because a computer relies on what you put in first. Bad modelling results show insufficient data input.

    • Disgruntled 01/08/2020, 2:18 pm

      Quite right Akto

  • John 01/08/2020, 5:31 pm

    I`ve just tread Andrews has escaped appearing before the inquiry into his Hotels fiasco. Been left to other experts to obfuscate, take the heat, cover his backside for him. What a spineless piece of crap he is. When I was young and knew everything I thought all life was valuable. Darn fool.

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