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 Remember when 40 failed polls got a PM turfed out?

15.04.19. National Political Editor
 at The Australian, Simon Benson, is almost making a career of orchestrating the much awaited every other Monday’s Newspoll results. As it has been for years, we see yet another Coalition loss to Labor by four points. If that poll is correct about 10 seats would be lost. It’s hard to understand how more people don’t see the destruction that Labor promises via its socialist, mean handed policies, too numerous to mention here. There are other reasons at play for Labor’s seeming success. Perhaps the poll’s sampling of 1697 people is flawed in some way, or selective in its result? We shall know that answer when all votes are counted—as it was for the Donald Trump surprise.
Pauline Hanson’s support has nose­dived, handing Scott Morrison the equal-best primary vote for the Coalition since just after the last election but also strengthening Labor’s lead. The first Newspoll since the May 18 election was called in the wake of the Coalition’s budget and Bill Shorten’s budget-in-reply speech puts the major parties neck and neck on a primary vote of 39 per cent each.

Source: News Corp

One Nation’s voter slip gives a lift to both major parties

With preferences from the Greens, Labor has maintained a two-party-preferred lead of 52 per cent to 48 per cent, representing a 2.4 per cent swing against the ­Coalition based on the last election, representing the potential loss of 10 seats for the Prime Minister.
Going into the first full week of the campaign, Mr Morrison ­enjoys an unchanged 11-point lead over the Opposition Leader as preferred prime minister.
The Prime Minister will today head back to Melbourne to announce further infrastructure projects in a state that, alongside Queensland, the Coalition believes could hold the key to the election outcome, with population being a hot-button issue.
Mr Shorten was in Sydney yesterday, where he was campaigning behind enemy lines in the Liberal-held seat of Reid, before returning to Melbourne last night. Today he is expected to keep the pressure up on health funding.
With less than five weeks to go before the poll, the Coalition has built on a two-point jump in its primary vote two weeks ago by adding a further point in the latest Newspoll, which began surveying voters on the day the election was called. This has come at the ­expense of One Nation, which has crashed to 4 per cent in the wake of the guns-for-funds scandal, with popular support falling nationally to its lowest point since 2016.
The Newspoll showed Mr Morrison had recovered all the ground lost since the removal of Malcolm Turnbull, with the best primary vote for the Coalition since July 30 last year. This has been the Coalition’s high water mark since September 2016, just two months after the last election.
Labor’s two-point jump fortifies the party’s election-winning lead despite still being down on a high of 41 per cent in the wake of the Liberal Party leadership spill in August last year.
The fall in One Nation support has shifted the electoral dial and delivered the major parties a higher combined primary vote than that recorded at the last election.
Having peaked at 11 per cent of the national primary vote less than two years ago, Ms Hanson’s conservative minor party has fallen to a low of 4 per cent in the latest poll, marking a further two-point decline in the past two weeks.
One Nation, which enjoys its highest popularity in Queensland, managed 1.3 per cent of the national primary vote at the last election.
However, it managed to snatch four Senate spots — two in Queensland, one in NSW and one in Western Australia. Changes to the Senate voting system under the Turnbull government cost the minor party a potential fifth spot.
Senior LNP sources said One Nation was still strong in marginal central Queensland seats, which meant the party could still be a deciding factor in the outcome of the election. However, the source said the party’s vote would have “come off” in southeast Queensland and NSW following the guns scandal.
The collapse in support for the right-wing nationalist party follows rolling scandals, including the recent secret recording of ­staffer James Ashby offering to try to water down Australia’s gun laws in an attempt to solicit a $20 million donation from the US gun lobby in footage recorded by an Australian Al-Jazeera reporter posing as the head of a fictitious firearms lobby group “Gun Rights Australia”.
Last month, following the guns-for-funds scandal, Mr Morrison vowed to put One Nation below Labor on Liberal how-to-vote cards. “I’m not interested in getting One Nation’s preferences. I’m interested in getting their primary vote,” he said.
In the latest exclusive Newspoll, the total vote for independents and minor parties, including the Greens, has now fallen to 22 per cent, which is below the combined result in the 2016 poll and well down on the peak of 29 per cent recorded in Newspoll in the middle of 2017.
Support for “others”, which includes Clive Palmer’s United Australian Party, fell from 10 per cent to 9 per cent, which represents a 2.7-percentage-point decline since the election.
The Greens remained unchanged on 9 per cent, which is a 1.2 percentage point swing on the last election result.
Newspoll surveyed 1697 voters nationally, in both city and country electorates, between April 11 and April 14.
The poll began its surveys immediately after Mr Morrison called the election.
The approval ratings for both leaders remained virtually unchanged as Mr Shorten hit the hustings in Reid for the third time since the election was called and Mr Morrison attended a rally in Brisbane.

{ 12 comments… add one }
  • luk1955 15/04/2019, 6:49 am

    Unfortunately the Australian public are convinced that the MUPpets are the only party that can run Australia. So hooked they are on their financial slavery to government and large companies that they cannot see what is clearly obvious, that they want eternal slavery.

  • DT 15/04/2019, 7:45 am

    It was said that the NSW State Government would lose to Labor and they survived comfortably.

    Newspoll is now owned by YouGov which is the UK based polling firm that over sampled in the US to indicate a win for candidate Clinton.


  • Lorraine 15/04/2019, 8:53 am

    they can rig the polls, but the election will sort that out.

    • DT 15/04/2019, 3:29 pm

      It is done to try and convince the swinging voters and other sheep to go with the winning team according to the polling trend.

  • Penguinite 15/04/2019, 9:07 am

    We Liberal minded voters must get over the Turnbull catastrophe otherwise Labor/Green government will be a self full-filling prophesy!

    • Aktosplatz 15/04/2019, 4:25 pm

      Agreed, in any case it seems that some LINOs are not standing for re election (Some).

    • Neville 16/04/2019, 12:54 am

      It’s looking that way, Peng. Sorry to say, but I may hafta send my vote to the libs – although in my electorate, it’ll make no bloody difference anyway; safe Liebor seat!

  • Graham 15/04/2019, 1:26 pm

    I don’t know if its the same 1697 people being sampled every time but a) its a strange number and b) a very small sample.
    No one has yet asked me for an opinion but at only 1697 I suppose it takes time to get around to everyone.

    • Aktosplatz 15/04/2019, 4:24 pm

      Me too.

    • Neville 16/04/2019, 12:57 am

      There’s a bit of a science to these surveys. Apparently, about 1400-odd or a bit more is sufficient to reduce the standardised statistical Margin of Error to a minimum. At about that number, the margin is (IIRC) around 2 or 3%. One could poll 10 or 100 times and many, and the margin would only fall by a few decimal points.

  • Aktosplatz 15/04/2019, 4:27 pm

    Don’t see the significance of having a poll for such an item as ‘Preferred Leader’. It’s totally irrelevant, if your party loses. Or does it mean (in this case) that Morrison is the preferred “Opposition” leader?

    • Neville 16/04/2019, 12:58 am

      Yeah, it’s a bullshit question – but emotive, and captures the swinging voter, so they leave it in!

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