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 QLD elections: if you believe the polls?

17.10.20.  MM Editor Chaucer is in the final few days of wintering in Queensland. Having met many Queenslanders and friends made, none of them come across as zombies at all. So, who and where are the zombies hiding? A Newspoll suggests “Annastacia Palaszczuk is on track to deliver Labor a third term of government in Queensland off her popularity and a rebound in the ALP’s base vote.” If this is true Chaucer will be back safely in NSW when the state disintegrates. The PalaceDuck will have to shut her borders again to avoid an exodus of people and their money! Even to Victoria?
The first Newspoll of the campaign shows that Labor has added three points to its primary vote, a lift to 37 per cent, which will erase the lead the Liberal National Party had going into the October 31 election. The LNP is one point down on the last poll, also on 37 per cent. After preferences are allocated, Labor is ahead 52-48 per cent two-party preferred, upending the results of the July 31 Newspoll.

Source: Jamie Walker, News Corp

Queensland election: ALP regains poll lead, says Newspoll

This would return Ms Palasz­czuk as Premier and possibly increase­ the government’s tight two-seat majority, setting it up for the shift to a four-year parliamentary term to bring Queensland into line with other states.
But with 12 of the 48 seats it holds vulnerable on margins of less than 4 per cent, Labor’s path to victory remains challenging and a hung parliament — where neither side achieves a majority to govern in its own right — remains a possibility.
Regional factors — such as the support for mining in the central and north Queensland coal belt and the impact of COVID-related border closures on tourism centres such as Cairns and the Whitsunday coast — are likely to break for the LNP.
However, The Weekend Australian’s exclusive Newspoll reflects a poor week for LNP Leader Deb Frecklington, who must find a way to reset her campaign with the clock winding down to elect­ion day in just a fortnight.
Scott Morrison will be encouraged by the support for his handling of the pandemic after spending most of the week in Queensland campaigning with Ms Frecklington. The survey of 1001 voters between October 9-14 recorded 76 per cent approval for the Prime Minister’s performance on the virus, basically steady.
If the election turns out to be a referendum on how the Labor government has managed the public health emergency, Ms Palasz­czuk is in a strong position, with 76 per giving her the tick for doing well or very well, up eight points in just on a month but short of the 81 per cent rating she posted in July.
The Greens party, which is gunning for inner-city Labor seats including South Brisbane, held by former deputy premier Jackie Trad, is down one point to 11 per cent, while One Nation has slipped two points to 9 per cent. The remaining 6 per cent of the vote is shared mainly by Katter’s Australian Party and Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party.
Campaigning on Friday on the Sunshine Coast, Ms Palaszczuk would not be drawn on where Labor was placed nearing the halfway point of the campaign.
“That’s a matter for Queenslanders,” she said. “But I get up every day and I do my job looking after the people of this great state … we have a very clear economic plan, which is focused on people and getting them into jobs.”
Asked if her message was cutting through, Ms Frecklingon, on the trail in Brisbane’s west, said: “That’s up to the voters of Queensland. I am so pleased with the feedback we are getting about the LNP’s strong economic plan.”
The increase in Labor’s prim­ary vote, from 34 per cent 10 weeks ago to 37 per cent, exceeds by 1.6 points what it polled at the 2017 election and puts the government in the running to push its tally of seats into the 50s, a more comfortable margin.
With pre-poll voting to start on Monday, Labor’s mid-campaign position is crucial as more people than ever before prepare to cast postal and early ballots.
Labor’s four-point lead in the two-party-preferred vote is based on preference flows at the 2017 election, adjusted to reflect the LNP’s move to preference the ALP last this time and the decis­ion by One Nation not to direct votes against sitting MPs.
Pauline Hanson’s party is standing candidates in 90 seats, many more than three years ago, amplifying the plunge in its vote from 13.7 per cent at the last election to 9 per cent. On Newspoll’s numbers, it will struggle to hold its one seat of Mirani in north Queensland.
Ms Frecklington’s approval ratings remain stubbornly low, with more voters dissatisfied than satisfied with her performance — 44-37 per cent, a slight improvement on the July Newspoll — and 19 per cent undecided.
Satisfaction with Ms Palaszczuk is steady on 63 per cent, with 33 per cent unhappy with her and only 4 per cent undecided. Importantly, she has 59 per cent approval outside the state’s populous southeast corner, against Ms Frecklington’s 37 per cent.
The LNP leader made up ground in the better premier comparison, from 26 to 32 per cent, but Ms Palaszczuk­ retains a commanding lead, with 57 per cent of voters giving her the nod. If she is returned, she will equal the record of reformist Labor premier Wayne Goss in winning three elections on the trot.

{ 14 comments… add one }
  • Muphin 17/10/2020, 6:20 am

    Unfortunately “Freckles” has the charisma of a 3000 year old Egyptian mummy. However, I will give her my vote just to get rid of this corrupt Labor Government.
    Vote> LNP, One Nation, Others, Labor, Greens. In that order.

    • Xword 17/10/2020, 7:28 am

      Good description. There’s a prominent rugby league coach I always thinks looks like something dredged up from the Valley Of The Kings

    • Aktosplatz 17/10/2020, 8:38 am

      I am afraid you’re right, Muphin Labor’s best weapon is ‘Freckles’. She’s offering more jobs (sound familiar?) is committed to avoid fossil filled energy (the cheapest and most reliable one).
      Only One Nation looks good but our bodgy preference system of voting will get rid of them

    • Fedup 17/10/2020, 9:05 am

      My voting will be PHON, LNP, Liars, greens last.

      • masalai 17/10/2020, 10:49 am

        Me too Fedup even tho it looks like Paulines candidate in this electorate has hardly raised even a mild sweat towards getting elected. If Paulines not interested then she’s done it for me

    • ibbir 17/10/2020, 9:53 am

      So correct,Muphin.Don’t want to vote for the Frecklington as she is hopeless, but anything is almost better than the Palace Duck and her stinky mob.

      • Ozman 17/10/2020, 11:32 am

        Unfortunately, this is always the problem. The one who is better than the worse is the option we usually have because getting the best is not something we have in politics.

  • seadogger 17/10/2020, 7:18 am

    Voting for sitting members ,no matter what mob they are from is an open invitation for more of the same. ie mediocre management by very mediocre people.
    Prepolling starts on Monday, put your sitting member last, vote early and vote often.

    • Ozman 17/10/2020, 11:35 am

      Have always felt uncomfortable voting with a pencil.

      • seadogger 17/10/2020, 2:47 pm

        OZ, take your own biro as I have done for years

  • Pensioner Pete 17/10/2020, 7:43 am

    I wonder if the Newspoll did some polling in the cemeteries in the south east corner where the dead are known to rise on voting day to vote Labor?

    Or perhaps, Newspoll asked the Chinese IT people involved in setting up the Queensland Electoral Commission systems with software ‘backdoors’ available for the Chinese to manipulate polling results?

    Then there is a third option, the Newspoll was taken in inner city Brisbane where Green madness is prevalent?

    One thing for certain, this Newspoll did not poll rural and regional areas of Queensland, for if they did so, the result would be completely different, showing Labor will not come within a bulls roar of government 31 October, the LNP improved and One Nation the game changer.

  • Penguinite 17/10/2020, 9:55 am

    Poll Moll. Lt them eat coal!

  • nev 17/10/2020, 12:18 pm

    In Qld elections, typically a number of irrefutable factors come into play.
    (1) The liberals if in coalition immediately picks a fight with its coalition partner, sidelining its self and alienating its supporters.
    (2) The liberals always search long and deep for their leader, to ensure he/she has the charisma of a fence post to be surrounded by a team who nearly all outshine their leader, continually drawing attention to their shortcomings.
    (3) Liberals usually lead in the perception that they are far better managers of the economy. So it would make sense to join the easy to follow dots that add better financial management, leads to a more buoyant economy, leads higher wages and increased job opportunities, leads to increasing affluence more infrastructure dams, rail etc all with less debt. So the liberals will always be careful to find policies like closing coalmines and killing jobs and State wealth to refute that idea, adding fuel to their opponents attack and drive voters to another party.
    (4) Liberals and their coalition partners believe, despite irrefutable proof to the contrary that the same rules of play apply to all, that the left wing media is bipartisan and Labour abides by the rules. They are always shocked to hear Labor’s false claims and impossible promises. Dismayed at the continual attacks from the left wing ABC and MSM including The Oz’s Bramston, Van Onselen or the lefty in disguise Paul Kelly who likely as not will come out in his last report just before the election and urge for another term for this wonderful labor government.

  • DT 17/10/2020, 2:34 pm

    I heard a comment on Sky News that the Deputy Premier, the one with the always constipated look on his face, graduate in unionism (seriously), will be Queensland’s next Premier if Union Labor win another election.

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