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 Are we headed for an ‘unlosable’ election?

20.09.21.  Through feeble leadership during the continuing pandemic whereby the Labor states decided to become provincial dictators, thereby splitting Australia into political tribes directed by confused witchdoctors seeking stardom, ScoMo has made a rod for his own back. Allowing lunatics to run the asylum carries a political penalty.
THERE is no easy explanation for Scott Morrison’s current predicament.
The Prime Minister has become the lightning rod for the disaffected, which in the Covid world would appear to be the majority. People are grumpy, some more so, and that isn’t likely to change until an assurance is given they can enjoy life free from the dead hands of state premiers. And therein lies the Prime Minister’s conundrum.

Source: Simon Benson, NCA

States hold power to spoil Morrison’s future

Morrison is contesting an unconventional political environment when 60 per cent of the population is in some form of state-imposed lockdown.
The pandemic remains the dominant feature, the lockdowns continue to be the defining aggravation and the anger, rightly or wrongly, is persistently directed Morrison’s way.
The state premiers, including the Liberal Premier of NSW Gladys Berejiklian, would appear to have succeeded in transferring blame for their failings back to the commonwealth.
There is little Morrison can do about it for the foreseeable future.
Until the federal contest returns to a more traditional one – absent of the provincial soap boxes – the polls will continue to be unfavourable for the federal Coalition.
Leaving that aside, if the polls were viewed through a more predictable prism, the Coalition would nevertheless appear to be in deep trouble.
The last four surveys have confirmed an average two-party preferred split of 47-53 in Labor’s favour. By any measure this would suggest a trend. And a rather dire one for the Liberal-Nationals.
A national averaged primary vote of 37 per cent would also indicate that in states such as Victoria, this could be down into the 20s. Seats such as Higgins would be in jeopardy.
The single biggest challenge for Labor post-election was to restore the party’s primary vote, which was at an historically low 33 per cent.
Morrison’s greatest challenge was to suppress it. On this score, Albanese would appear to have succeeded.
But then that begs the question as to how much has it got to do with Albanese, considering his net approval ratings are at their lowest levels since he took over the leadership from Bill Shorten.
Morrison’s gambit is “Covid-normal” will mean politics as normal, whereby the real contest will begin.

{ 11 comments… add one }
  • Cliff 20/09/2021, 6:27 am

    He could call a referendum asking the population of Australia whether they want to be Australians or citizens of six separate States. He should have done so eighteen months ago, the moment the State Premiers first began their prima donna act.

  • Penguinite 20/09/2021, 7:58 am

    I want to see “Clive of Queensland” in Parliament! Clive of India is a well-known brand of curry powder which is just what our Parliament needs!

    • Lorraine 20/09/2021, 8:57 am

      I do think Clive Palmer is more for Australia , a bit like Donald J Trump . What ever happened to the millions of drugs he purchased of HCQ and gave to the Government …………………we could do worst than vote for Craig Kelly and if he can bring on more trustworthy people, the better

  • PW 20/09/2021, 8:00 am

    I want Brian Houston’s mate to do a Hayden/Hawke swap to Dutton at the appropriate time.

    • Disgruntled 20/09/2021, 8:16 am

      Would be good; I think though that Dutton has his hands more than full getting the defence and security thing in Australia back on track. That is an enormous job and does need doing and properly at that; I do not think there is anyone else more capable than Dutton for this.

      In saying that I do consider that the P M does need desperately to pick up his act and think a lot more on what he does do

  • Botswana O'Hooligan 20/09/2021, 8:26 am

    For starters there is no Pandemic except in the mind of the health officers, various bureaucrats, the Premiers and the P. M. all of whom continue to get paid handsomely. Initially, Morrison and Andrews created the rods for their own backs and were followed by the other premiers one fondly hopes that they will all lose their seats. One aspect alone should damn Morrison to the depths of hell if it existed for indemnifying the manufacturing people and the chain all down the line against legal action from side effects caused by this so called vaccine, even the many deaths caused by it. Furthermore, the weakling has the hide to call himself a Christian.

    • Penguinite 20/09/2021, 10:15 am

      Bot’s, the CEO’s are mindless and just parroting their leaders thoughts. Premiers need CEO’s to give them and their “emergency pronouncements” legitimacy. You only need to hear that Melbourne Cop spruiker refer to “Defending CHO Orders” to understand. The bulk of the 280 persons arrested will be charged with “contravening CHO Orders”.
      The cops or Public Order Force are just paid thugs!

  • Sir Peter 20/09/2021, 9:43 am

    MM, your first sentence in the introduction is perhaps the best summary of our wuflu debacle I’ve read. Go to the top of the class.

  • JG 20/09/2021, 10:50 am

    Labor states have run a get the fed government from day one just as Each Way Albo wanted. They have set the PM up as the fall guy for everything.
    Shutting borders, dragging feet on the jabs, not ordering or stock piling as excuses. Being bloody minded about peoples welfare but its all the Feb governments fault.
    Australia is doomed if Each Way Albo and recycle clowns like, Bowen, Shorten, De Twit, the Shreek and now they trying to add KK or bamby as she was known. Prepare for woke to the max.

    • Aktosplatz 20/09/2021, 9:52 pm

      I think you’re right ,JG. Both Pallychook & Gowan have said their borders will stay shut until 80% have been vaccinated (that figure virtually unachievable)

      I think they are determined to keep the borders shut whatever and ruin Morrison’s chances in the next Election.

      If Albo wins then they will probably open the borders immediately.

  • DT 20/09/2021, 11:04 am

    It is very important to know and understand the constitutional legal position, and most importantly the powers and responsibilities of State Premiers & Cabinets.

    This explanation from Victoria regarding the powers and the Victoria Parliament approved Emergency Powers is comprehensive.

    https://www.parliament.vic.gov.au/publications/research-papers/download/36-research-papers/13962-emergency-powers-public-health-and-covid-19

    For people who avoid informative links like the plague here is an extract from it …

    “1.3 Who is responsible?
    In Australia, declaring and responding to emergencies has traditionally been the responsibility of the states and territories. State parliaments exercise plenary powers, meaning they can legislate on any matter other than those matters over which the Commonwealth has exclusive power.[footnote 15] Accordingly, the states are generally free to define an ’emergency’ as they see fit, and delegate special powers in line with that definition. States are constrained only by the limited freedoms guaranteed by the Australian Constitution, areas which the Constitution specifies as the responsibility of the Commonwealth Government (such as quarantine) and the requirement that parliaments do not permanently abdicate their legislative powers.[footnote 16]

    The Australian Constitution does not provide the Commonwealth Government with a core or general ’emergency power’ with which to respond to exceptional threats and crises.[footnote 17] Rather, special powers are provided for in ordinary and typically state-level legislation that defines the conditions under which specific kinds of emergencies might be declared. In the absence of fixed definitions, legal scholars tend to classify three kinds of emergency that might necessitate the use of such powers: ‘wartime’ emergencies; emergencies pertaining to ‘serious civil disturbances’, including treason, sabotage or terrorism; and ‘civil emergencies’, including from natural, medical and industrial disasters, strikes in essential services, and economic emergencies.[footnote 18]

    The range of Australia’s emergency powers for addressing such threats has become more complex in recent decades. Since the terrorist attacks of September 11 2001, and the subsequent ‘war on terror’ waged by countries including Australia, most academic commentary and political debate has centred on the implications of new legislation that provides authorities with sweeping powers to counter terror activities. In this context, the Commonwealth Government has sought to significantly expand its powers dealing with these threats.[footnote 19] In Australia, as elsewhere, this legislative activity has raised repeated concerns about the potential imbalances between public safety and the rule of law.[footnote 20]

    Emergency powers have also undergone significant change in response to the increased incidence of natural disasters, including the 2009 Black Saturday bushfires and 2019–20 bushfires, and warnings by global health authorities of the likelihood of a global pandemic. Over the past few decades, all states and territories have introduced new emergency management legislation as well as public health legislation with clauses containing emergency powers to deal with such disasters.

    1.4 Emergency powers in Victoria and other states
    Emergency powers are not new. In Australia, special powers resemble the broad framework provided for by the Emergency Powers Act 1920 (UK).[footnote 21] In Victoria, such powers were first provided by the Public Safety Preservation Act 1923, which empowered the Governor in Council to issue a ‘proclamation of emergency’ of up to one month’s duration, enabling the issuing of regulations for securing ‘public safety or order’.[footnote 22] This legislation was consolidated in 1928 and again in 1958, with the latter still in force.[footnote 23] The Essential Services Act 1958 (Vic) similarly empowers the Governor in Council to declare a state of emergency when essential services appear threatened, such as during industrial action. Similar powers are available under the Fuel Emergency Act 1977 (Vic). A state of emergency was last declared under this Act in 2004, in response to a hospital shortage of coal briquettes.[footnote 24]

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