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 A bit too soon to write Trump off we think?

18.10.20.  Oh Dear! ‘Tis a brave journo indeed that writes Trump off from the top job as well proven by his presidential win in 2016, a decisive win that mortified most prognosticators. A damned fine writer is Troy Bramston  who points out Trump’s failings to a degree and perhaps hedges his bet with, “Donald Trump can still win the US election. But he would need the greatest comeback in presidential history.” However, the unpacking of the Joe Biden family’s dirty secrets could be dynamite in the hands of Trump. It certainly would be if the Trump-hating media gave it some coverage—which appears it collectively won’t do. When it comes to the unorthodox Trump wise observers will be recalling the old proverb, “There’s many a slip twixed cup and lip!”
The reality is that Trump is on track to lose by a landslide. This has been evident all year. Why? Not because the election is rigged, the political system is corrupt or the media is biased, but because Trump has been a catastrophic president.

Source: Troy Bramston, News Corp

US election 2020: Voters are tired of Trump’s catastrophic presidency

It is not surprising that Trump is trailing Joe Biden by an average of nine to 10 points in national polls. Biden is reaching into the early 50s while Trump struggles in the low 40s. Biden’s national lead is far greater than Hillary Clinton ever achieved. It is the biggest lead any challenger has had since 1936. This is an important electoral sign but it is not necessarily predictive. Trump lost the popular vote four years ago.
More worrying for Trump is the battleground states. Trump is well behind in the three midwestern states he won unexpectedly, although narrowly, in 2016: Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Trump trails Biden by six to eight points in these states. If the same margin of error four years ago is repeated, Trump will still lose all of them. It is difficult to see a pathway to victory for Trump without winning these states. Moreover, Biden has stable polling leads in Arizona, Florida and North Carolina. Biden also is leading in the average of polls taken in Georgia, Iowa and Ohio.
Trump won all of these states in 2016. If Trump loses Florida, it is probably all over.
The polling is concerning Republicans so much that they fear down-ballot losses. Some Republican Senate and house candidates are distancing themselves from Trump. There is a good chance that Democrats could win control of the Senate. A 50-50 Senate would give Kamala Harris the casting vote as vice-president.
There is no doubt that Biden, at age 77, is missing a few beats. But the debate showed he is intellectually, physically and cognitively up to the job of being president. Picture: Getty
Where candidates campaign is indicative of how they see the contest. Trump is on the defensive, spending time mostly in states he won in 2016. Biden is on the offensive, eyeing Democratic gains in multiple states. This mirrors the advertising spend and allocation of campaign resources.
Trump needs to expand his base to win re-election. But all the data shows him losing voters since 2016. His approval rating is 44 per cent according to Gallup. This is below the first-term average for every president since Harry Truman. Trump has not achieved 50 per cent approval in a Gallup poll this year. A month from their re-election, Barack Obama’s approval was 50 per cent, George W. Bush’s was 49 per cent and Bill Clinton’s was 56 per cent.
Another important measure of the mood of voters is to ask about the direction of the country. Just 31 per cent of voters think the US is on the right track and 62 per cent say it is on the wrong track. This reflects poorly on Trump as the incumbent president. It is often forgotten that voters have already judged Trump’s presidency in the 2018 midterm elections. The result? Republicans lost the House of Representatives.
The most important election issue is COVID-19. Trump’s handling of the pandemic has been disastrous. The US has a higher infection and death rate than any other major developed economy. Trump lied about how deadly the virus was, delayed acting and his eventual response has been flawed. He mocked masks, ignored social distancing, suggested injecting bleach and recommended drugs with dangerous side effects. Trump getting COVID-19 is emblematic of his failures. Most voters believe he would not have tested positive for the virus if he had taken it more seriously.
The key for Democrats was choosing the right candidate to face Trump. The most viable was always Biden. He is experienced, having served as vice-president and senator, and is a moderate on policy. He is not from the Democratic Party’s loony left wing. Biden is a centrist. It is mistaken to think Biden’s support is fuelled only by anti-Trump sentiment.
Even before the Democratic primaries and caucuses this year, Biden was viewed much more favourably than Trump. Biden has made inroads into Trump’s base, especially with men and white non-college graduates, and leads among younger and older voters, women, college graduates and non-white voters. Biden has a broad coalition of support. Enthusiasm for Biden lags that for Trump, but the gap is closing.
There is no doubt that Biden, at age 77, is missing a few beats. But the debate showed he is intellectually, physically and cognitively up to the job of being president. Is everything Trump says lucid, logical and coherent? Of course not. The bottom line is that Biden passes the character test; Trump does not.
Biden’s key pitch to voters is that he will unite, not divide; lead with dignity and integrity; treat people with respect, not derision; be honest, not dishonest; and he will listen rather than lecture. Biden uniquely matches this moment as the perfect anti-Trump. Voters are fatigued by Trump’s intellectually and morally bankrupt presidency. Biden is an experienced, safe, mainstream candidate for president.
Those desperate to keep the MAGA — Make America Great Again — dream alive comfort themselves with talk of “shy Trump voters”. There may be polling errors this year. But pollsters have made improvements in their sampling, including weighting by education and geography. The truth is that Trump defeated Hillary Clinton by what was a normal polling error. It was a close result. Trump drew the wrong lessons from victory.
If Trump does lose, it will become the new “lost cause”. This is the myth that sustained the sons and daughters of Confederate soldiers that their crusade was right and they were not defeated. Trump’s MAGA supporters will burnish this faith. It will never die. Trump will become its chief propagandist. A dynasty of Trump candidates beckons. Or Trump could run again in 2024.
Some commentators said Trump could not win four years ago. This was a monumental error of judgment. Trump appealed to the cultural anxieties and economic insecurities of Americans and capitalised on Clinton’s deep unpopularity. Clinton was always the likely winner according to the polls, but it was by no means certain. Trump always had a chance of victory.
But Trump was lucky in 2016. He essentially won the presidency by a combined 77,744 votes in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. He was helped by third-party candidates who siphoned votes from Clinton. There was no electoral college sweep. He lost the popular vote by 2.8 million. This time the election will be a referendum on Trump’s presidency. He needs all the luck he can get.

{ 11 comments… add one }
  • Pensioner Pete 18/10/2020, 6:29 am

    I generally go by the odds, and for Trump there are some serious bets being placed for a Trump win.

    Quote: “For some Australian and British bookmakers, Trump is the odds-on favourite.”

    Refers: https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/trump-betting-odds-gamblers/2020/09/06/id/985586/

    • Mercy 18/10/2020, 8:55 am

      Let’s hope they are right. There are a subset of Americans who say they are voting for Biden when approached by pollsters & left-wing family & friends but have no intention of doing so. And there has a number of high profile left-wingers who have come out for Trump, recognising how crazy the left has become. The Walk Away Campaigns for former lefties/Democrats have been surprisingly successful.

      • Muphin 18/10/2020, 9:08 am

        Today’s Courier Mail:- Ladbrokes has Trump at $2.80 underdog. Ladbrokes is holding $3.5 million on a Trump win.

  • Penguinite 18/10/2020, 7:05 am

    Trump loses, America and the World does too!

  • seadogger 18/10/2020, 7:31 am

    Bramston goes to a lot of trouble to prove to us that he is a rolled gold moron lefty. He can read the US news services as well as I can and having 8 0r 10 people turn up to listen to a candidate for POTUS is not a winning formula so “sleepy” you are going to lose big time.
    Secondly let us know “Sleepy” what dirt do you have on Hunter to cause him to have to pay you 50% of his back door income from the Chinese.
    $10,000,000 per introduction is no small change and evidently there were 8 of these transactions.
    The SWAMP is putrid.

  • DT 18/10/2020, 11:18 am

    If you watched Fox News Outsiders this morning you will now be desperate for President Trump to win a second term, new world order mischief makers are preparing for social engineering control and management.

  • Soroako 18/10/2020, 11:35 am

    Troy Bramston may be talented in the art of stringing words together but his wokeness and cringe-worthy efforts to endear himself to the elites has blinded his ability to differentiate facts from fallacy. He record on Trump is consistent. He has never had a positive thing to say about the man and has no hesitation in condemning Trump for things he didn’t do or say.

    Here is a breakdown – sentence by sentence on the paragraph wrote about Trump & Chinese Flu:

    Bramston: Trump’s handling of the pandemic has been disastrous.
    Reality: Trump shut down flights from China and was immediately branded an Xenophobe meanwhile Democrat leaders [Pelosi & De Blasio] poo-pooed the Flu and implored people to visit China Town and Asian restaurants]. Trump instigated emergency production of ventilators [most never needed], sent Navy hospital ships to NYC and Washington State, provided military field hospitals [none of which were used] and encouraged USA production of PPE be ramped up.

    Bramston: The US has a higher infection and death rate than any other major developed economy.
    Reality: The numbers game that has played out over the Kung Flu began with the same sort of computer modelling that “woke” universities used to model the “Climate change will kill mother earth by 1986, 1999, 2005, 2008, 2013, 2019 …”. You’ll remember that in March 2020 these people were suggesting that MILLIONS of people would die in the USA and Hundreds of Thousands would die in countries such as Australia. These pushers of computer modelling and statistical manipulation are practiced in looking the other way when their fanciful predictions are challenged and dole out a Marx Brothers response: “You don’t like those numbers – here I have another set you can have.”

    Bramston: Trump lied about how deadly the virus was, delayed acting and his eventual response has been flawed.
    Reality: In March nobody knew how potent the virus would be and there was a tendency to err on the side of caution. Trump imposed the China travel ban and was condemned for over reacting. Just like Motor Mouth Morrison did here Trump did say that there was no need to panic, that we should protect the vulnerable, practice good personal hygiene etc. Trump didn’t delay reacting – he was criticised for being decisive. I have no idea what Bramston means by “his eventual response has been flawed.”

    Bramston: He mocked masks, ignored social distancing, suggested injecting bleach and recommended drugs with dangerous side effects. Trump getting COVID-19 is emblematic of his failures.  
    Reality: Masks – Bramston hasn’t being paying attention to ongoing mask debate. The rest of us remember that the WHO and our our Health Departments played down the wearing of masks [while they were in short supply] and then when they were plentiful suggested wearing them, then WHO said they were ineffective, then some crazy Democrats issued fines to people who didn’t wear them while exercising alone in the open air. More than 50% of those who have tested positive to Kung Flu in the USA in Sep 20 were mask wearers! But then again they may be using Joe Biden as their role model when it came to how they fitted and wore said face mask. The doddering old kiddie fiddling fool can’t even put a face mask on properly yet Bramston believes he is fit and mentally competent enough to lead the free world!

    As to the social distancing – given that Trump took the stance that he was well insulated by the protocols put in place at the White house with their daily checks of everyone within spitting distance I believe Trump was correct to carry on in his job of presiding over the country rather than locking himself up in his basement – like Creepy Joe and Troy Bramston did.

    Bramston wrote that Trump “suggested injecting bleach” is an outright lie created by and perpetuated by left wing media. The truth is that Trump was trying to be a wiseguy in front of the TV cameras when he turned to face the medical expert panel and asked if it was feasible to mix bleach with a drug to kill off Kung Flu. He never suggested it. The left wing nutters have merged that with the incident of the woman who poisoned her husband and blamed Trump for suggesting that poison was a cure.

    Finally Bramston stated that Trump “recommended drugs with dangerous side effects.” That would be hydroxychloroquine. There are still plenty of actual experts out there who claim that if the patient is not yet seriously affected by the King Flu then hydroxychloroquine in combination with Zinc and other additives improves the patients survival chances. The side effects are well known and manageable otherwise the drug wouldn’t still be available 50 years after being put into widespread use for Lupus and Malaria treatment.

    But Bramston and other of his ilk – that includes all of the left and the soft cock LINOs conveniently and deliberately omit from any article or utterance is that – just like in Australia – the individual states are responsible for the health systems and their operations within their state. It is the State which determines how many hospital beds, where to house the infected, shut downs, curfews, border controls, social distancing measures, mask on or off, etc. etc.

    And just like Australia the effects of Kung Flu in the USA hit hardest in the states which have draconian left governments with a penchant for cultural diversity.

    Nobody really can be confident of the polls being bandied about the USA election. I was hopeful in 2016 that Trump would beat Hillary and delighted that he did. In 2020 some pollsters are using the same lazy polling methods as 2016 and hoping for a different result. I see enthusiasm for Trump when there is safety in numbers. Biden can’t attract a crowd so we don’t know if he is popular.

    Bramston hates Trump so much he would prefer that the USA be led by an angry frustrated old man suffering with dementia, tormented by the knowledge that his son is a drug addict who had no compunction using his fathers’ office as VP to extort millions of dollars, had no hesitation [and then bragged about it on camera] black mailing a foreign government to stop investigating the criminal deeds of his son, supported suppression and division of blacks for decades, and during the past few years but more so this year tacitly encouraged anti-fa and BLM thugs to destroy businesses, homes and lives throughout the country.

    And then when Creepy Joe retires to his basement to watch endless re-runs of his child fondly exploits the free world will be led by a White hating, power mad, megalomaniac woman of colour, best known for chasing long prison terms for Blacks and so disliked by Democrats that she was one of the first contenders to drop out of the presidential nomination race due to lack of support by Democrat members.

    • Soroako 18/10/2020, 11:42 am

      Note to self: Check for obvious grammar and punctuation errors before posting next time – idiot.

      • Eliza 18/10/2020, 11:53 am

        Soroako, I love that you have put the facts out so clearly. Pity few will bother to notice. Trump is bad orange man, full stop. Keep on giving the facts, Soroako.
        His achievements have been incredible and you may have noticed that even the so called right over here do not acknowledge what he has done for peace in the middle east.
        Trump goes so will the west, Australia included.

    • Tamworth 18/10/2020, 12:00 pm

      I’ll put up with any grammatical errors for the pleasure of reading the line by line destruction of Troy Boy Bramston

  • Eliza 18/10/2020, 11:46 am

    Troy Bramston might be a wordsmith and he may be a prolific writer but first and foremost he has always had TDS and is very much a Never Trumper.
    Unfortunately most of our reporters only visit the lefty blogs and msm and if they bothered to do a lot more research they would see a very different story and that is that in the states that matter like FL AZ MI MO and others where things were tight Trump is a head.
    Trump will win by a landslide however the fraud, lawsuites and violence will make the results a much harder equation than just winning.

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