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Indigestion for Malcolm the Magnificent?

Indigestion for Malcolm the Magnificent?

Recent polls around the world of late have cast doubt on accuracy. Trump’s win was a prime example with millions still living with troublesome disbelief. No one seems to know exactly why and the reasons proffered are many. In my case it’s very simple—I lie like hell—or more so like the lying bastards that want my vote—for their lifetime of profligacy—from my pension stollen by this damned government. Maybe my sentiments are more binding than I, or the pollsters realise. Anyway, if the the Fairfax/Ipsos results are even near right Malcolm will be using Ant-Acid tablets rather than sugar in his coffee this morning!

Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull has suffered a backlash in Queensland while losing ground in NSW and Victoria, according to a new analysis that reveals a powerful swing to Labor ahead of five byelections this month.

Source: Fairfax

States swing to Labor in grim poll for Turnbull

Voters have swung to Labor in every mainland state since the last election, putting Opposition Leader Bill Shorten and his party ahead of the government by 53 to 47 per cent in two-party terms.

The Fairfax/Ipsos results show the government’s support in Queensland in two-party terms has slumped from 54 per cent at the election to 48 per cent over the three months to the end of June.

The results highlight the challenge for Mr Turnbull in the Queensland seat of Longman, where the government must defy the state trend to have any chance of winning the seat from Labor on July 28.

Senator Hanson has attacked Mr Shorten and vowed to put Labor behind the Coalition in preferences at the byelection, but she has stopped short of saying this would be put on how-to-vote cards at polling places.

One Nation gained 9.4 per cent of the primary vote in Longman at the 2016 election, and more than half its voters gave their second preferences to Labor, which won the seat by a margin of just 0.8 per cent.

While One Nation preferences could boost the Coalition at the byelection, this may not be enough to offset the strong increase in Labor’s primary vote across Queensland, if the statewide trend is repeated in the electorate.

The race for the Tasmanian seat of Braddon appears much tighter, however, with the new findings showing Labor leads the Coalition by a single percentage point after preferences in Tasmania, the closest result of any state.

The quarterly analysis, conducted exclusively for Fairfax Media, confirms the horror slide for the Coalition since the last election in the most-populous states, where the government must recover ground if it is to retain power at the election due by May.

The Coalition would lose as many as 18 seats if the latest poll was reflected at a general election, given the government is trailing Labor in Queensland by 48 to 52 per cent, in NSW by 47 to 53 per cent and in Victoria by 44 to 56 per cent in two-party terms.

If replicated at an election, this would see the government lose Queensland seats such as Capricornia, Forde, Flynn, Dickson, Petrie, Dawson, Bonner, Leichhardt and Brisbane. The casualties would include Peter Dutton, the Home Affairs Minister, who holds Dickson by a margin of 1.6 per cent.

A series of byelections is functioning as a mini-election as the Government and Labor road test their policies ahead of the looming federal election.

The swings against the government in NSW, if replicated at an election, would see it lose Gilmore, Robertson, Page and Banks.

In Victoria it would lose Chisholm, Dunkley, La Trobe and Corangamite. It could also lose the West Australian seat of Hasluck if the state polling results were repeated seat-by-seat in each state.

Mr Turnbull has kept his lead over Bill Shorten as preferred prime minister in every state and at a national level, backed by 52 per cent of voters compared to 32 per cent for the Opposition Leader.

Mr Shorten is regarded more favourably in his home state of Victoria, where Mr Turnbull leads by 49 per cent to 34 per cent as preferred prime minister.

This is offset by stronger polling for Mr Turnbull as preferred prime minister in Western Australia, South Australia and Queensland.

The quarterly analysis compiles the results from 3,566 respondents in Fairfax/Ipsos polls over the three months to the end of June, with a margin of error of 1.6 per cent for national results and 2.9 per cent for some state results.

Victoria is the Coalition’s weakest state, followed by NSW and then South Australia and Queensland.

In Western Australia, however, the government has a strong lead over Labor of 53 per cent to 47 per cent in two-party terms.

The government’s lead is narrower than the result of 55 per cent to 45 per cent at the last election, highlighting the risk for Aged Care Minister Ken Wyatt, who holds the seat of Hasluck by a margin of 2 per cent.

The results for Tasmania shows the government trails Labor by 48 per cent to 49 per cent in two-party terms, but this is based on a small sample size.

{ 18 comments… add one }
  • Popular Front 10/07/2018, 6:37 am

    Turnbull’s popularity, or in this case the lack thereof, is a clear example of how Australians dislike disloyal backstabbers and resent being lectured by pompous twits totally ‘up themselves’. I thought Billy MacMahon was disliked but this bloke Turnbull puts him in the shade.

  • Cliff 10/07/2018, 7:54 am

    I find myself thinking the old adage “a pox on both their houses”, for I am appalled at the thought of this country enduring three more years of either Shorten or Turnbull as Prime Minister.

    Shorten as Prime Minister is unthinkable – I believe to many in the Labor camp as well. But I find myself asking just how much worse he could possibly be to what we have now?

  • Aktosplatz 10/07/2018, 8:31 am

    It’s very clear what we should do at the next election.

    1. Forget Political Parties – all of them.

    2. Vote for each person on his or her merits, regardless of party, for instance I would vote for Peter Dutton or Tony Abbott if I was in their constituency. I would not vote for Pyne, Turnbull or Bishop, etc.

    Examine each track record and fill out every space on the ballot paper.

    We need people of quality in parliament, someone like Peta Credlin, for instance.

  • Phil 10/07/2018, 8:55 am

    In stead of running polls on a two party preferred basis, how about adding the rest of the candidates as a third option? The answers to Australia’s political woes won’t be addressed by Labor or LNP, they are the problem. It has to be some alternative.

  • Neville 10/07/2018, 8:59 am

    I’m inclined to PF’s view, above. We just can’t stand a backstabbing bastard. The RGR thing proved to us all that Liebor are a bunch of backstabbing bastards, as if we needed proof. The Turdball attack on an elected Prime Minister showed oh most clearly that his ambitions to the PMship were ever thus; oh, and yes, we STILL don’t like backstabbing bastards.

  • Pensioner Pete 10/07/2018, 9:51 am

    The solution actually lies upon our ballot papers. Always place ALP/Greens and LNP LAST on the ballot paper. Place independents and minor parties (One Nation etc.) first on the ballot paper. Problems solved. Sure, there will be a good bit of upheaval in the new independent style government, but once the dust settles, we will at last have a government of the people for the people, placing legislation into law which is for the betterment of we all, rather than the corrupted crappy system of government we suffer now.

    • DT 10/07/2018, 10:09 am

      That’s the way to protest: Greens last, ALP and then LNP with your primary vote to the best conservative patriotic candidate who is not aligned with the major parties.

      But take care, in NSW commencing at state parliament level the ALP recruited “independents” who had appeal to voters in LNP traditional seats where ALP and Green could not win swapping preferences. And later some of those state members became federal members, Windsor and Oakeshott for example, and were ALP supporters from about 2008 from when Oakeshott won Lyne at a by election.

      I understand that GetUp/ALP are again preparing to field “independents”.

      • Bushkid 10/07/2018, 11:06 am

        Yes DT, we’ve seen far too many of the minnows roll over and either join a hostile voting bloc, be influenced (to our detriment) by the majors, or defect to one of the majors. True “independents” are hard to find.

        Trust, that’s what we’d like to be able to have in those we choose to elect to govern in our best interest.

  • Albert 10/07/2018, 9:53 am

    A swing to Labor is not only a grim poll for Turnbull but also a grim poll for the rest of us. I dread the thought of Shorton and his mob pulling the levers of power but what are we to do? It is one or the other and one is as bad as the other. How the hell did we finish up in this position?
    I like Akto’s voting proposal but would add that putting independents and minors at the top of your list may just ensure that the two majors, whichever wins, do not have the balance of power.

  • ibbit 10/07/2018, 9:54 am

    A well deserved backlash. Malcolm is so bloody transparent in his attempts to shore up his vote that one can only have absolute contempt for him.
    Australia has a problem -largely brought about by the Turdball -Malcolm and Bill. Get rid of the current useless object and elect the other, then repeat the procedure until politicians get the message that people are not here just to be extorted by the political class for their coffers, but expect them to do what they are elected to – govern well for ALL.

  • DT 10/07/2018, 10:11 am

    What a choice:

    B) Shorten and Plibersek

    A) Turnbull and Bishop

    We need a Plan C.

    • Popular Front 10/07/2018, 10:26 am

      Plan C? Tony Abbott reinstated and A.N. Other. Dutton? perhaps but he isn’t exactly advancing himself these days. Somebody young but tough.

  • clarion call 10/07/2018, 12:21 pm

    Plan C: collect all parliamentary pollies from both sides, including the interdependents, pile them into a Hercules big plane and fly them out to the 200 mile exclusion zone. Drop the back lid and pop them onto the starting blocks for the marathon swim home. Slam dunk for poor suffering Aussies everywhere. I assume all the pollies can swim? No? Oh what a shame!

    • Popular Front 10/07/2018, 12:48 pm

      LOL I like your style Clarry. I believe that’s known as the ‘Argentinian Solution’.

  • Cliff 10/07/2018, 12:38 pm

    All these comments about putting Labor/Greens and the Libs at the bottom of your picks mean nothing, for, unless enough other voters do as you’re doing to get a minor Party candidate win the seat, (which in apathetic Australia, will never happen), your vote will eventually drift down through preferences to the major Party candidate you place higher on your ‘least bad’ list.

    • DT 10/07/2018, 1:02 pm

      Therefore: As most agree that Shorten Union Labor Greens are the worst of a bad bunch of choices voting with Greens last, Labor second last we might end up with an LNP MP if our primary vote selection does not?

      But the dramatic fall is support for the LNP should rock their boat significantly.

    • TommyGun 10/07/2018, 2:57 pm

      Correct, Cliff.
      We end up with a major party MP nearly every time thanks to the stupid “preference” system we have. It is biased against non-party candidates.
      It should be: who gets the most votes outright wins. No trading. But that will never happen here.

  • Neville 10/07/2018, 9:32 pm

    Time for selective preferences voting; I forget the proper name for it. Just tick the boxes ONLY of those you like. Ignore the rest. If you like none, tick a ‘none of the above’ box, to register a valid vote. Count up each of all the boxes ticked – top number wins the vote

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